Next steps in the Trump Presidency

The looking glass will continue to be on Trump.   Hatred of Hillary will fade for lack of a spotlight.  Given Yale Professor Fair's model is correct lack of strong growth [1.7% is apparently not enough] will cause the electorate to turn against the incumbent Republicans and toward the Democrats.

The model to put $ back into the hands of the middle class seems unclear.  Previously unions and high marginal tax rates were used.  The requirements for unions are much less than they were i.e. large factories requiring a lot of workers.  There seems little public will to raising taxes.

However the electorate has bet that since The Donald has his own money, he can't be bought and will 'do the right thing' for the average Joe.  May this turn out to be the case.  His cabinet picks of a bunch of rich white mostly men with little history of watching out for the little guy belie this.  However, once in power with the task of taking care of the US, perhaps a new side of these folks will prevail.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-rally-could-mark-biggest-postelection-stock-market-rise-since-hoover-2016-12-12

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-stock-market-performs-from-election-day-through-inauguration-day-2016-11-08

"Both stats suggest performance has more to do with timing than faith in prospective policies."


On the stock front, concerned about end of year cash outs.  Plan on trying selling premium based on Gregs calls on indexes and larger stocks.  Disney seems to be moving up... maybe sell a few put spreads there.  Goal is to trade at least 2 days per week.

Short put and call spreads model - 'cash flow'
Collect up front money.
If it moves against the desired direction sell before all up front money is gone.
If it moves toward desired direction get out when most possible win has been earned i.e. 1 in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

Initial Post - snapshot of observations

Trump is the new president elect, helped by the FBI director reminding the public that Hillary's emails made it onto someone else's machine.  He neglected to mention that while both sides had their servers hacked by the Russians, only info embarassing to the Democrats was released.  The ghost of J Edgar indeed.


What does this have to do with the financial markets?  Good Question.
What can the Russian's offer the US vs what can other countries?
Russia has cheap oil and gas.
They don't have any manufacturing base.  Not sure they buy much of our bonds either.
With fracking the US can provide much of it's own oil and gas.
Meanwhile the Russians are being aggressive in the middle east [bombing civilians in Allepo] and in Europe [Crimea, Baltic states etc.]

When the market run ends
We've had a nice market run during the Obama years.   Things they will change though.

6 funds to buy as things are going south
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13925569/2/6-ways-to-profit-when-the-fed-goes-cold-turkey-on-ultra-low-interest-rates.html

ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ) : (Nasdaq 100)

ProShares Short Dow30 (DOG) : (Dow Jones Industrial Average)

ProShares Short S&P500 (SH) : (S&P 500)

ProShares Short MidCap400 (MYY) (S&P Mid Cap 400)

ProShares Short SmallCap600 (SBB) (S&P Small Cap 600)

Proshares Short Russell2000 (RWM) (Russell 2000)

INTEREST RATES TO RISE
Given Trumps unfriendliness our bonds will have to yield more to keep customers' interest i.e. other countries.  Both Japan and China aren't buying like they used to.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-25/u-s-bond-market-s-biggest-buyers-are-selling-like-never-before

Market is rising like during the Hoover adminstration... not exactly something to strive for.

That's enough for now