Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Initial Post - snapshot of observations

Trump is the new president elect, helped by the FBI director reminding the public that Hillary's emails made it onto someone else's machine.  He neglected to mention that while both sides had their servers hacked by the Russians, only info embarassing to the Democrats was released.  The ghost of J Edgar indeed.


What does this have to do with the financial markets?  Good Question.
What can the Russian's offer the US vs what can other countries?
Russia has cheap oil and gas.
They don't have any manufacturing base.  Not sure they buy much of our bonds either.
With fracking the US can provide much of it's own oil and gas.
Meanwhile the Russians are being aggressive in the middle east [bombing civilians in Allepo] and in Europe [Crimea, Baltic states etc.]

When the market run ends
We've had a nice market run during the Obama years.   Things they will change though.

6 funds to buy as things are going south
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13925569/2/6-ways-to-profit-when-the-fed-goes-cold-turkey-on-ultra-low-interest-rates.html

ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ) : (Nasdaq 100)
ProShares Short Dow30 (DOG) : (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
ProShares Short S&P500 (SH) : (S&P 500)
ProShares Short MidCap400 (MYY) (S&P Mid Cap 400)
ProShares Short SmallCap600 (SBB) (S&P Small Cap 600)

Proshares Short Russell2000 (RWM) (Russell 2000)

INTEREST RATES TO RISE
Given Trumps unfriendliness our bonds will have to yield more to keep customers' interest i.e. other countries.  Both Japan and China aren't buying like they used to.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-25/u-s-bond-market-s-biggest-buyers-are-selling-like-never-before

Market is rising like during the Hoover adminstration... not exactly something to strive for.

That's enough for now


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