Friday, December 16, 2016

Next steps in the Trump Presidency

The looking glass will continue to be on Trump.   Hatred of Hillary will fade for lack of a spotlight.  Given Yale Professor Fair's model is correct lack of strong growth [1.7% is apparently not enough] will cause the electorate to turn against the incumbent Republicans and toward the Democrats.

The model to put $ back into the hands of the middle class seems unclear.  Previously unions and high marginal tax rates were used.  The requirements for unions are much less than they were i.e. large factories requiring a lot of workers.  There seems little public will to raising taxes.

However the electorate has bet that since The Donald has his own money, he can't be bought and will 'do the right thing' for the average Joe.  May this turn out to be the case.  His cabinet picks of a bunch of rich white mostly men with little history of watching out for the little guy belie this.  However, once in power with the task of taking care of the US, perhaps a new side of these folks will prevail.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-rally-could-mark-biggest-postelection-stock-market-rise-since-hoover-2016-12-12

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-stock-market-performs-from-election-day-through-inauguration-day-2016-11-08

"Both stats suggest performance has more to do with timing than faith in prospective policies."


On the stock front, concerned about end of year cash outs.  Plan on trying selling premium based on Gregs calls on indexes and larger stocks.  Disney seems to be moving up... maybe sell a few put spreads there.  Goal is to trade at least 2 days per week.

Short put and call spreads model - 'cash flow'
Collect up front money.
If it moves against the desired direction sell before all up front money is gone.
If it moves toward desired direction get out when most possible win has been earned i.e. 1 in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.


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